Bars in (A) show the minimum (base, yellow), central (line, red), and maximum (top, dark red) threshold estimates for each element (bold font, global core; regular font, regional impact), with a paleorecord of GMST over the past ~25 ky and projections of future climate change (green, SSP1-1.9; yellow, SSP1-2.6; orange, SSP2-4.5; red, SSP3-7.0; purple, SSP5-8.5) from IPCC AR6 shown for context. Future projections are shown in more detail in (B) along with estimated 21st Century warming trajectories for current and net-zero policies (gray bars, extending into (A); horizontal lines show central estimates, bar height the uncertainty ranges) as of November 2021 versus the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C (green bar). The number of thresholds potentially passed in the coming decades depending on SSP trajectory in (C) is shown per decade (bars) and cumulatively (lines).